Fear of crime is on the rise. But violent crime is dropping. Why the disconnect?

We should feel safer. The FBI has been reporting reductions in violent crime for several years. The rate—which covers murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery, and assault—has dropped steadily, from 469 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2005 to 454.5 in 2008.

But if anything, we feel less safe. According to a Gallup poll, the percentage of Americans who feel crime is rising nationally has generally increased, from 53 percent in 2004 to 68 percent in 2006 to 74 percent in October 2009. Gallup found similar results for our perception of local crime, with the percentage of Americans who believe there’s increased crime in their area rising from 37 percent in 2005 to 51 percent in 2009.

Easier and faster access to crime news likely accounts for some of the misperception. And we’ve become all too aware of crimes that barely existed in the U.S. twenty years ago, such as identity theft and terrorism. Yet overall, crime statistics show that the chances of actually becoming a crime victim are relatively low: the odds a person twelve or older will be a victim of a personal crime (including violent crimes, robbery, and pickpocketing/purse snatching) in a year are 1 in 46.61, and the odds of being a victim of a violent crime are 1 in 48.36. The odds a household will be a victim of a property crime (including burglary, theft, and car theft) in a year are 1 in 6.83.

Here’s the scoop on some commonly feared crimes and the real odds of being a victim. (All real-crime odds are for a one-year period, so, naturally, your lifetime odds of victimhood increase as you continue to walk the earth.)

    * Identity Theft: One in 1.52 (66 percent) of us worry about this digital-age crime, and with good reason: the odds a household will be a victim of identity theft in a year are 1 in 18.22—over 5 percent.

    * Car Crimes: One in 2.13 of us worry about our car being stolen or broken into. The actual odds of car theft in a year? Nationwide, just 1 in 187.3.

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