Republicans say they intend to keep the focus on Obama's policies, which they cast as deficit-busting, big-government boondoggles. "Democrats can attempt to spin it any way they want, but unfortunately for them this election is going to be a referendum on the president and his party's failed economic policies," said Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

But Obama's pickings were slim when it came to campaign themes.

The narrative that worked so well when Obama was a presidential candidate offering himself as a transformational figure who could change Washington is no longer at his disposal. He can hardly claim to have delivered on that promise because he hasn't changed Washington, at least not much, as he's acknowledged.

Obama's stacked up a remarkable, if controversial, string of legislative successes, from last year's economic stimulus bill to the health care law and now the financial overhaul bill. But his vaunted eloquence on the campaign trail has often seemed to desert him as he's tried to sell those policies to the public. To the 14.6 million people out of work nothing else much matters anyway.

At the same time, the desire for change that Obama helped ignite is still burning. But this time it may work against him. As Bush recognized shortly before leaving office, calling for change is a luxury denied to incumbents.

"I was the guy in 2000 who campaigned for change. I campaigned for change when I ran for governor of Texas. The only time I really didn't campaign for change is when I was running for re-election," Bush told ABC News in December 2008.

In the end, trying to convince voters that things are moving in the right direction, although not as fast as he or they would like, might be the only message Obama can reach for.

"Is it the best that they can do, I think, is really the question. And I'd have to say yes, it is," said Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution.

So Obama tells voters every chance he gets that things would be a lot worse if not for the stimulus bill and other steps he took. At least the recession never became a depression, the president says.

Proving a negative is a hard argument to make, but Obama keeps at it. He has little choice.

Sometimes, the president sounds confident the message will get through.

"Americans don't have selective memory," Obama told NBC News recently. They'll remember "the policies that got us into this mess as well."

Other times, he doesn't sound so sure.

"I know that sometimes people don't remember how bad it was, and how bad it could have been," Obama said in Racine, Wis.

So this election year, instead of beckoning voters to change the future, Obama is just hoping they'll remember the past.

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