How Big an Afghan Army?
The U.S. and additional NATO reinforcements will include between 5,000 and 10,000 soldiers dedicated to training new recruits to the Afghan National Army, the growth of which is the key condition for eventual coalition withdrawal. McChrystal hopes to double the size of the Afghan security forces to about 400,000 men. But the time and money needed to generate and maintain an army and police force whose combined size would be close to that of the 550,000-strong U.S. Army is a daunting task in impoverished and war-torn Afghanistan. So don't look for Obama to announce any big hike in the size of the Afghan army. Instead, he'll leave discussion on its size to Congress, where hearings on the war are slated in the coming days.

How Will the U.S. Pay for the War?
Many of Obama's Democratic allies in Congress are already saying that any reinforcements should be paid for with a war surtax. That, of course, is a fiscal fig leaf for antiwar sentiment within the party that helped win Obama its presidential nomination. The tax proposal may make political sense during a recession, but the estimated cost of the additional troops — perhaps $40 billion annually — is just over 1% of this year's federal budget. Don't expect Obama to play bean counter tonight, which will upset Democrats more than the GOP. (Read "Obama Weighs the Cost of an Afghan Surge.")

How to Pressure the Locals to Do Their Part?
The Administration plans on creating "benchmarks" for Afghanistan and Pakistan to meet in order to retain the commitment of U.S. troops and money to the conflict. But long-standing corruption and incompetence can't be quickly eradicated. "The Pakistani and Afghan governments are both next to useless when it comes to this issue," Democratic Representative Dave Obey of Wisconsin, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, tells TIME. So look for fairly elastic benchmarks, which will only please those who are required to meet them.

What's the Bottom Line?
Obama's decision carries high stakes for the thousands of Americans he's ordering into harm's way as well as for Afghanistan itself. But there's one more consequence he's unlikely to mention but can't avoid. The speech will underscore Obama's ownership of the Afghan mission, says Anthony Cordesman, a military scholar with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. By 9 p.m. E.T., Cordesman says, Obama will "have to take personal responsibility for the outcome of the war ... betting his historical reputation and second term on the outcome."

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