The end of the year offers a chance to look back on all that's come and gone in the past 12 months. It also offers a chance to use that knowledge of the past to bet on the outcome of the next 12 months for fun and profit.

To that end, I've taken a look at the larger trends in the game industry in 2009 and extrapolated them into predictions for 2010. With this list, I tried not to make vague guesses about the direction of the industry, but rather offer up concrete, testable hypotheses that can be evaluated at the end of the year. For each prediction, I've also offered up odds showing how confident I am in each prediction (betting against me at 2:1 means I pay one if I'm wrong, you pay two if I'm right), so that in a year's time, we can see if you'd have been better off betting with me or against me. (I know setting odds on my own predictions is a bit unfair, but I tried to come up with offers that would get a fair set of bids on both sides.)

Enough chitchat; here's the list. See you in a year!

 

1. Nintendo Wii sales will decline year over year in North America.

Part of this prediction is based on the simple idea that the Wii has nowhere to go but down, after dominating the North American sales charts for so long. With the system recently dropping from $250 to an even friendlier $200, I have to believe that everyone who really wants a Wii will have already bought one by the end of this holiday season. But this prediction is also driven by the fact that Sony and Microsoft are making a serious push for the market niche Nintendo has carved out -- with lower prices, upcoming motion controllers and a marketing focus on family-friendly gaming. This doesn't mean I think those companies' systems will pass the Wii in yearly or even monthly sales, but unless Nintendo has some new gimmick up its sleeve to reinvigorate interest among the already Wii Fit-ted masses, I don't see Wii sales continuing at their current heights in 2010.

Offered odds against: 2:1

 

2. PlayStation 3 sales will increase year over year in North America.

Sony's powerhouse is already starting to see a sales bounce thanks to a lower, $299 price point, holiday releases like Uncharted 2: Among Thieves and an effective new ad campaign. This trend should continue well into 2010, when anticipated exclusives like God of War III, Gran Turismo 5, MAG, Heavy Rain and The Last Guardian start rolling in. As more and more people jump on the HDTV bandwagon through the year, I expect Sony's built-in Blu-ray player will make it look like an increasingly compelling all-in-one home entertainment choice to many consumers as well. Whether the increase will be enough to make the PS3 more competitive with the Xbox 360 and Wii is an open question, but the system seems poised to finally show sales improvement of some kind in the coming year.