Offered odds against: 5:4

 

5. At least one download-only release will be on the shortlist for the Game of the Year awards.

The downloadable-games market went a long way to breaking free of its image as retail's neglected cousin this year, with console releases like Flower, Shadow Complex and the Bit.Trip series, indie PC games like Auditorium and iPhone games like Zen Bound garnering widespread critical acclaim and attention (if not necessarily sales). But the consensus picks for 2009's game of the year are still congealing around big-budget, cinematic retail releases. This may not be the case next year, as developers stretch the bounds of what downloadable games can be and increasingly use downloads as a way to get around the used-game-centric retail market. Maybe "Game of the Year" contention is a little bit lofty, but regardless, I expect the downloadable-game market to continue its march toward relevance in the coming year.

Offered odds against: 10:1

 

6. No PS3 motion control or Natal-exclusive games will be on the shortlist for Game of the Year.

For all the hype surrounding the unveiling of Sony and Microsoft's camera-based motion controller's at this year's E3, I think the technologies are bound to be disappointments when they actually come out. After a burst of interest surrounding their release, I expect both controllers will be inundated with gimmicky, shallow, motion-controlled games (see: the majority of the Wii software lineup), and both will lack the killer apps needed to really drive widespread adoption. Without that sort of critical mass, most developers and publishers will only grudgingly support the devices, adding half-hearted camera-control support to games that also have more traditional controls, which critics and consumers will continue to largely prefer. By the end of the year, the hype will have given way to reality and Sony and Microsoft will slowly scale back their focus on these new controllers, preparing instead to integrate better motion controls into their next consoles.