Offered odds against: 2:1

 

3. Rhythm-game sales will decline year over year.

Activision CEO Bobby Kotick might say the rhythm-game market isn't saturated, but the slashed sales projections for DJ Hero tell a different story. Despite healthy sales for The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5 this holiday season, the genre feels like it's struggling for the next big idea that will really drive consumers to open up their wallets for that new, must-have instrument-shaped peripheral. There's a chance that new idea could come about sometime next year, but it seems more likely the genre will start to stagnate under slowly growing disinterest in the same old karaoke, guitar- and drumming-based games. That said, I expect the market for downloadable songs for existing Rock Band and Guitar Hero platforms will remain strong throughout 2010.

Offered odds against: 3:1

 

4. Industry-wide game sales will go up, year over year.

Everyone knows the recession caused the game industry to hit a bit of a slump this year, so some sort of bounce back along with the slowly recovering economy seems likely. But an industry recovery seems even more obvious when you look at the blockbuster-heavy lineup of releases that have already been announced for the first half of the year. Mass Effect 2, God of War III, Heavy Rain, BioShock 2, Alan Wake, Splinter Cell: Conviction, Final Fantasy XIII, Gran Turismo 5 and more all make for a first-half lineup that makes even the impressive first half of 2009 look like amateur hour. And that's all months before the historically strong holiday season, which will likely see more yet-to-be-announced blockbusters. All in all, it's shaping up to be a strong year for gaming.